U.S. Midterm Elections, Biden-Xi Meeting, and Red Line in the Taiwan Strait
By Philip Yang
United Daily News, November 13, 2022
The results of the midterm election in the United States reaffirmed the polarization and populism in American politics. Supporters of and opponents to former President Donald Trump, as well as pro-choice and pro-life factions are intolerable to each other and exist alongside complex racial issues and exceedingly ridiculous campaign finances. Altogether these various forces are making political parties more vicious and America more divided. Indeed, many democracies face similar problems, with economic factors retreating from elections and rigid ideological confrontations rising.
In contrast to what was expected from pre-election polling and historical midterm results, the Republican Party won only a "small victory" this time. Instead, President Joe Biden and the Democrats—who were expecting defeat—instead feel like the victors.
There are many reasons for this. First, Mr. Trump was overly complacent and announced before the election that he would soon make a major announcement, allowing the Democratics to mobilize anti-Trump forces. Second, the Republicans clearly underestimated the impact of the historically regressive abortion issue among women and young voters. Finally, the Biden administration successfully staved off economic issues from overtaking other topics by throwing money at the problem.
Election Will Have Far-Reaching International Effects
American aid to Ukraine may be affected, and it is hoped that the Russian-Ukrainian war can be negotiated. According to a German think tank, the total military, economic and humanitarian aid pledged by the United States to Ukraine has exceeded $53 billion, while the total amount from European countries is close to $30 billion. Republicans and their supporters have criticized the government for giving too much in aid, while the Biden administration has stated to Ukraine that it should not reject negotiations.
Furthermore, the midterm election has given President Biden more confidence to handle relations with China. Although Mr. Biden mentioned U.S.-China relations in his speech at the United Nations in September—emphasizing that the United States "does not pursue conflict or the Cold War”—the White House's national security strategy released last month pointed out that China is the biggest geopolitical challenge to the United States and that China must be defeated in ten years by means of "investment, alliance, and competition." China and the United States have entered the state of long-term strategic competition.
In the midterm election, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy released his "Promise to America" campaign platform in late September, mentioning that the United States should reduce its economic dependence on China and strengthen its supply chain security. At the same time, he also proposed to set up the “Select Committee on China” in the House. Together, this represents the strong anti-China attitude of the Republican Party.
Therefore, the Group of 20 (G20) meeting between Mr. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week will help maintain the basic position and interaction between the two heads of state, as they finally meet. However, due to the fundamental lack of trust between the two sides, the meeting will likely not produce any concrete results—only to maintain the "struggle but not break" head of state diplomacy. Perhaps there may be some overlapping opinions between the two sides on issues such as climate change and the war between Russia and Ukraine, but the words will be more empty than real.
In addition, President Biden recently expressed his hope that at the Biden-Xi meeting, "both sides will draw their own red lines on the Taiwan Strait issue”. But Beijing is opposed to outside interference and will certainly not discuss "red lines in the Taiwan Strait" with the United States. Or is Mr. Biden trying to express his military support for Taiwan to the international media? Is Xi warning Biden not to intervene in cross-strait issues? Remember, the United States drew the red line in Ukraine before February this year and yet Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored him and then the Russia-Ukraine War followed.
Next, what is the impact of the U.S. midterm elections on Taiwan? There are two possible actions taken by the new Congress worthy of attention. One is whether McCarthy, who may become the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, will visit Taiwan. The other is how the "Taiwan Policy Act" will be passed. Both issues will affect the Taiwan Strait and even the presidential election in Taiwan. In particular, the Taiwan Policy Act has high levels of support in both houses of Congress but is seen as a comprehensive upgrade of U.S.-Taiwan relations as well as American military involvement and assistance—sensitive issues both.
Finally, news reports indicate that former President George W. Bush of the United States will join President Tsai Ing-wen and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on stage on November 16, with the theme "Fighting for Freedom.” An Office of the President spokesman confirmed that President Tsai will take this opportunity to share Taiwan's experience at the forefront of democracy with the international community.
The three of them will share the stage just after the Biden-Xi meeting. The spokesman said that Taiwan is at the forefront of democracy, but Ukraine is at the forefront of war. General Mark Miley, chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff recently said that the Russia-Ukraine War has killed 100,000 military personnel on each side and about 40,000 civilians in Ukraine. International media is worried that Taiwan will be the next Ukraine! But it can’t be!
(The author is chair professor of the College of Social Sciences, Chinese Culture University, and former deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council.)